Simba Rushwaya
PRETORIA – ALTHOUGH the latest eNCA public opinion shows a decrease in the ruling ANC’s popularity in the upcoming elections, one political analyst and researcher at Hellen Suzman Foundation, Aubrey Matshiqi, says its nothing for the opposition to pop the champagne bottle over.
“The starting point for me is the credibility of the survey. I’m of the view that most of these polls are wrong. Look at what the polls said in India in 2009, the Brexit in the United Kingdom and about Donald Trump in the United States,” says Matshiqi.
Adds Matshiqi: “Yes, everything is pointing that ANC will suffer in the August because their internal processes have been poor. The result is that they now have serious image crisis. While they might have this crisis, but I don’t see them losing any of the metros in Gauteng, but the ANC must accept that it is in a state of decline. Having accepted that reality, the party must be brutal on whom it must deploy to represent them from the top to the bottom.”
The latest eNCA public-opinion survey shows 23% of respondents in the Tshwane municipality, which includes Pretoria, who were surveyed by telephone this week said they would vote for the ANC, down 4 percentage points from a week earlier, according to the poll, which was compiled for the broadcaster by research company Ipsos. Support for the opposition Democratic Alliance surged to 42% from 36%, and for the Economic Freedom Fighters to 11% from 9%, the broadcaster said in a statement.
Another dent for the party’s ruling party’s image has been the political violence that swept Tshwane against the party’s selection of ANC mayoral candidate, former agricultural minister, Thoko Didiza.
The protests were the latest setback for the party, which was already losing support because of rising discontent over high unemployment, lack of decent housing and education, coupled with a series of scandals that have implicated its leader, President Jacob Zuma.
In Johannesburg, support for the ANC dropped one percentage point to 31%, while backing for the DA increased by the same margin to 33%, the poll showed. The EFF garnered 11% support, up from 9%.
The poll surveyed 1 500 people across the three cities including Nelson Mandela Bay in Eastern Cape. Fifteen percent of respondents in Tshwane and Nelson Mandela Bay and 16% in Johannesburg said they were undecided about who they would vote for. The margin of error was 1.6% to 3.7% in Tshwane, 1.2% to 2.8% in Johannesburg and 2.5% to 5.7% in Nelson Mandela Bay.
“The record of these surveys have been very poor and I have skepticism about them. If you go back to 2006, people predicted that ANC will suffer losses, but so far nothing has materialized. ANC supporters usually don’t turn out for local elections and I’m predicting that it should suffer serious losses in the forthcoming elections

According to the Independent Electoral Commission, the August vote is being contested by 200 parties and 61,014 candidates.
The ANC won 62% of the total vote in the last municipal elections in 2011, gaining control of 198 of the 278 municipalities, including seven of the country’s eight biggest metropolitan areas. The DA secured 23.9% support and an outright majority in 18 councils, including Cape Town, the second-biggest city, which wasn’t covered by the eNCA poll. The EFF was founded in 2013.
But ANC spokesperson for Tshwane Tebogo Joala is adamant that his party will cruise to victory next month despite the negative polls and comments by political commentators that the party should be “brutal on whom it should deploy from the top to bottom.”
“As ANC we are running our own electioneering campaign programme. Our focus remains on our strategy and nowhere else. We have been made aware of various polls that were generated by various organisations.
“As an organization we do our research from time to time and it tells us something different. Our message is clear and simple, and it resonates with most of our voters. Our track record speaks for itself and many of our people tell us that we are correct trajectory towards resolving their social and economic challenges,” says Joala.
Professor Tinyiko Maluleke of the University of Pretoria, who disapproves of the recent violence that engulfed Tshwane says the polls do not reflect the outcome of the election and people will only know after August 3.
“Those polls are conducted every week and it reflects the dynamics of the situation on the grounds. We will never get the truth until the August 3 when election take place, but violence is regrettable. No one should die because of elections. We all lose. We lost lives and businesses in the previous violence,” says Maluleke as a parting shot for the make or break elections .
– simba.rushwaya@gautengguardian.co.za